East Idaho’s Record-Breaking Warm Winter Sets Stage for Severe Water Shortages Across Idaho and the West
East Idaho has just endured the warmest winter on record — not one of the warmest, but the warmest ever measured since record-keeping began in 1895. And the consequences are already arriving in the form of disappearing snowpack, shrinking reservoirs, and mounting alarm from water managers across the region.
The numbers tell a stark story. In December, Pocatello shattered its all-time monthly temperature record — a record dating back 130 years — with an average of 38.1 degrees, more than 12 degrees above normal. Idaho Falls averaged 34.5 degrees that month, nearly 13 degrees warmer than usual. Both cities repeatedly reached the low-to-mid 50s during what are typically the coldest weeks of the year.
The warmth did not let up. February ran nearly 8 degrees above normal in Pocatello. March proved even more extreme: Pocatello’s average temperature of 46.6 degrees set a new monthly record by more than 2 degrees, seven daily high temperature records fell throughout the month, and on March 18, 19, and 20, the city hit 77 degrees — shattering marks that had stood since 1986. Idaho Falls, Burley, and Challis all set their own March monthly high temperature records.
Snowpack Gone Early, Water Running Short
The extraordinary warmth has devastated Idaho’s snowpack at precisely the wrong time. Idaho’s snowpack normally peaks around April 5. This year it crested three weeks early — on March 17 — and has been melting ever since. In the Owyhee Mountains southwest of Boise, snowpack reached only 21 percent of normal.
Rob Van Kirk, science and technology director at the Henry’s Fork Foundation, painted a grim picture in his weekly column. “Flow in the upper Henry’s Fork is likely to be the second lowest in 93 years of records, surpassed only by 1934,” Van Kirk wrote. He projects that water moving through the Henry’s Fork watershed between April and September will reach only 62 percent of the recent long-term average, with similar shortfalls expected across the South Fork of the Snake River and other parts of the basin.
The upper Snake River reservoir system stood at 74 percent of capacity in early April, which may sound reassuring — but water managers warn it is not. Irrigation diversions that began in the Magic Valley on March 25 have already started slowing the fill rate, and the system is expected to peak in mid-May, roughly a month earlier than average. That means water managers will be forced to draw on storage sooner and harder than in a normal year, leaving far less in reserve when farmers need it most in July and August.
Lucky Peak Reservoir near Boise is forecast to receive just 51 percent of its normal water supply from April through September. Idaho Power has already warned that low streamflow will force the utility to seek alternative energy sources to offset reduced hydropower output — meaning potential energy supply complications on top of the water crisis. The Idaho Office of Emergency Management has called the water supply outlook alarming and is preparing for the possibility of a severe wildfire season. In a visible sign of the crisis already arriving at the local level, the city of Blackfoot enacted citywide water restrictions on homes and businesses just last week. Other communities across the region are expected to follow.
A Western Crisis With No Easy Relief in Sight
East Idaho is not facing this alone. Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming all set record-low April 1 snowpack values since modern monitoring began in the 1980s. Across all Western states, peak snowpack arrived an average of three to five weeks earlier than normal. The Colorado River Basin is expected to produce less than 30 percent of average runoff — ranking among the worst years on record. Federal drought monitors upgraded large portions of the West to severe drought in early April.
The National Integrated Drought Information System offered no comfort in its latest assessment: “Drought conditions and impacts can be expected to deteriorate further,” the agency stated. Federal forecasters are now watching for a potentially strong El Niño event to emerge between May and July. For Idaho, that is a deeply unwelcome development — El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions, reduced snowpack, and precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, compounding exactly the problems the region is already facing. In practical terms, it could mean next winter looks much like this one — or worse.
Any meaningful relief for Southeast Idaho this summer will depend on late spring storms and an active late-summer monsoon rain season. For now, forecasters are offering no guarantees. Local farmers are already watching their irrigation allocations shrink, and communities along rivers running well below normal are staring down what could be a summer of historic water scarcity.
While residents wait for answers on the water outlook, community life in Pocatello continues. Jumbos in Pocatello has been serving the community for six decades and recently expanded, a sign of the resilience that defines Southeast Idaho even in difficult times.
What Comes Next
Water managers across the region will be monitoring reservoir levels closely as irrigation season ramps up in the coming weeks. The Idaho Office of Emergency Management is expected to release further guidance on drought preparedness and wildfire risk as forecasts are updated. Additional communities beyond Blackfoot are anticipated to announce water use restrictions in the weeks ahead. Residents and agricultural operations throughout Bannock County and Southeast Idaho should monitor updates from local water districts and municipal utilities as the summer season approaches. For statewide water and drought coverage, visit Idaho News and the Idaho News Network.